List of top Decision Making Questions on Analytical Decision Making asked in XAT

Decisions are often 'risky' in the sense that their outcomes are not known with certainty. Presented with a choice between a risky prospect that offers a 50 percent chance to win $200 (otherwise nothing) and an alternative of receiving $100 for sure, most people prefer the sure gain over the gamble, although the two prospects have the same expected value. (Expected value is the sum of possible outcomes weighted by their probability of occurrence.) Preference for a sure outcome over a risky prospect of equal expected value is called risk averse; indeed, people tend to be risk averse when choosing between prospects with positive outcomes. The tendency towards risk aversion can be explained by the notion of diminishing sensitivity, first formalized by Daniel Bernoulli in 1738. Just as the impact of a candle is greater when it is brought into a dark room than into a room that is well lit, so, suggested Bernoulli, the utility resulting from a small increase in wealth will be inversely proportional to the amount of wealth already in one's possession. It has since been assumed that people have a subjective utility function, and that preferences should be described using expected utility instead of expected value. According to expected utility, the worth of a gamble offering a 50 percent chance to win $200 (otherwise nothing) is \(0.50 \times u(200)\), where \(u\) is the person's concave utility function. (A function is concave or convex if a line joining two points on the curve lies entirely below or above the curve, respectively.) It follows from a concave function that the subjective value attached to a gain of $100 is more than 50 percent of the value attached to a gain of $200, which gives a preference for the sure $100 gain and, hence, risk aversion.

Consider now a choice between losses. When asked to choose between a prospect that offers a 50 percent chance to lose $200 (otherwise nothing) and the alternative of losing $100 for sure, most people prefer to take an even chance at losing $200 or nothing over a sure $100 loss. This is because diminishing sensitivity applies to negative as well as to positive outcomes: the impact of an initial $100 loss is greater than that of the next $100. This gives a convex function for losses and a preference for risky prospects over sure outcomes of equal expected value, called risk seeking. Except for prospects that involve very small probabilities, risk aversion is generally seen in choices involving gains, while risk seeking tends to hold in choices involving losses.

Based on the above passage, look at the decision situations faced by three persons: Babu, Babitha and Bablu.

Suppose the instant and further utility of each unit of gain is the same for Babu. Babu has decided to play as many times as possible before he dies. He expects to live for another 50 years. A game does not last more than ten seconds. Babu is confused about which theory to trust for making his decision and seeks the help of a renowned decision making consultant, Roy Associates. What should Roy Associates' advice to Babu be?
Directions for Q125-129: The following set of questions is based on a decision-making situation described below. Read the passage and answer the questions that follow.

Ram Kumar, an overworked executive in Delhi, has to decide on the travel plan for attending his friend's marriage in Ajmer, Rajasthan. He has barely managed to get leave from his boss, so he must make sure he reaches Ajmer at least on the day of the marriage. Since it had been a while since his last break, he also planned to visit a few tourist spots along the way to de-stress after a year of demanding work.

As per his plan, Ram would start from Delhi and first visit the Bharatpur bird sanctuary, staying at the forest guest house for some time. He would then travel to Jodhpur for a day or two of sightseeing, and from Jodhpur move to Jaipur to spend a few days visiting the city. After that he would travel on to Ajmer, where his friend's wedding would take place.

Leg 1, Delhi to Bharatpur (bus, taxi or train, all three taking 12 hours): the probability of reaching on time is 0.65 by bus, 0.75 by taxi and 0.9 by train.
Leg 2, Bharatpur to Jodhpur (train, bus or private taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.9 by train (12 hours), 0.8 by bus (16 hours) and 0.85 by taxi (14 hours).
Leg 3, Jodhpur to Jaipur (flight, train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.85 by flight (2 hours), 0.9 by train (10 hours), 0.65 by bus (15 hours) and 0.7 by taxi (15 hours).
Leg 4, Jaipur to Ajmer (train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.75 by train (4 hours), 0.55 by bus (5 hours) and 0.55 by taxi (5 hours).

Since both Jaipur and Jodhpur have airports, Ram could also fly directly from Delhi to either city, or use a flight partway along with a combination of land transport.
Q125. The second best option (in terms of travel time) gives a total travel time of ______ hours for the entire itinerary.
Directions for Q125-129: The following set of questions is based on a decision-making situation described below. Read the passage and answer the questions that follow.

Ram Kumar, an overworked executive in Delhi, has to decide on the travel plan for attending his friend's marriage in Ajmer, Rajasthan. He has barely managed to get leave from his boss, so he must make sure he reaches Ajmer at least on the day of the marriage. Since it had been a while since his last break, he also planned to visit a few tourist spots along the way to de-stress after a year of demanding work.

As per his plan, Ram would start from Delhi and first visit the Bharatpur bird sanctuary, staying at the forest guest house for some time. He would then travel to Jodhpur for a day or two of sightseeing, and from Jodhpur move to Jaipur to spend a few days visiting the city. After that he would travel on to Ajmer, where his friend's wedding would take place.

Leg 1, Delhi to Bharatpur (bus, taxi or train, all three taking 12 hours): the probability of reaching on time is 0.65 by bus, 0.75 by taxi and 0.9 by train.
Leg 2, Bharatpur to Jodhpur (train, bus or private taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.9 by train (12 hours), 0.8 by bus (16 hours) and 0.85 by taxi (14 hours).
Leg 3, Jodhpur to Jaipur (flight, train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.85 by flight (2 hours), 0.9 by train (10 hours), 0.65 by bus (15 hours) and 0.7 by taxi (15 hours).
Leg 4, Jaipur to Ajmer (train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.75 by train (4 hours), 0.55 by bus (5 hours) and 0.55 by taxi (5 hours).

Since both Jaipur and Jodhpur have airports, Ram could also fly directly from Delhi to either city, or use a flight partway along with a combination of land transport.
Q126. Due to winter fog, flights out of Delhi have become uncertain and unreliable. Given this constraint, the itinerary Ram should adopt to have the best probability of reaching Ajmer on time is:
Directions for Q125-129: The following set of questions is based on a decision-making situation described below. Read the passage and answer the questions that follow.

Ram Kumar, an overworked executive in Delhi, has to decide on the travel plan for attending his friend's marriage in Ajmer, Rajasthan. He has barely managed to get leave from his boss, so he must make sure he reaches Ajmer at least on the day of the marriage. Since it had been a while since his last break, he also planned to visit a few tourist spots along the way to de-stress after a year of demanding work.

As per his plan, Ram would start from Delhi and first visit the Bharatpur bird sanctuary, staying at the forest guest house for some time. He would then travel to Jodhpur for a day or two of sightseeing, and from Jodhpur move to Jaipur to spend a few days visiting the city. After that he would travel on to Ajmer, where his friend's wedding would take place.

Leg 1, Delhi to Bharatpur (bus, taxi or train, all three taking 12 hours): the probability of reaching on time is 0.65 by bus, 0.75 by taxi and 0.9 by train.
Leg 2, Bharatpur to Jodhpur (train, bus or private taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.9 by train (12 hours), 0.8 by bus (16 hours) and 0.85 by taxi (14 hours).
Leg 3, Jodhpur to Jaipur (flight, train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.85 by flight (2 hours), 0.9 by train (10 hours), 0.65 by bus (15 hours) and 0.7 by taxi (15 hours).
Leg 4, Jaipur to Ajmer (train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.75 by train (4 hours), 0.55 by bus (5 hours) and 0.55 by taxi (5 hours).

Since both Jaipur and Jodhpur have airports, Ram could also fly directly from Delhi to either city, or use a flight partway along with a combination of land transport.
Q127. Ram's younger brother Shyam gets to know of Ram's travel plans and wants to come along. Unlike Ram, Shyam enjoys the scenery en route and wants Ram to maximise the total travel time. To do this, the itinerary Ram should decide on is:

I. Delhi to Bharatpur by train; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by bus; Jodhpur to Jaipur by bus; Jaipur to Ajmer by bus
II. Delhi to Bharatpur by bus; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by bus; Jodhpur to Jaipur by taxi; Jaipur to Ajmer by taxi
III. Delhi to Bharatpur by bus; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by bus; Jodhpur to Jaipur by bus; Jaipur to Ajmer by bus
IV. Delhi to Bharatpur by taxi; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by bus; Jodhpur to Jaipur by taxi; Jaipur to Ajmer by bus
V. Delhi to Bharatpur by taxi; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by taxi; Jodhpur to Jaipur by taxi; Jaipur to Ajmer by taxi
Directions for Q125-129: The following set of questions is based on a decision-making situation described below. Read the passage and answer the questions that follow.

Ram Kumar, an overworked executive in Delhi, has to decide on the travel plan for attending his friend's marriage in Ajmer, Rajasthan. He has barely managed to get leave from his boss, so he must make sure he reaches Ajmer at least on the day of the marriage. Since it had been a while since his last break, he also planned to visit a few tourist spots along the way to de-stress after a year of demanding work.

As per his plan, Ram would start from Delhi and first visit the Bharatpur bird sanctuary, staying at the forest guest house for some time. He would then travel to Jodhpur for a day or two of sightseeing, and from Jodhpur move to Jaipur to spend a few days visiting the city. After that he would travel on to Ajmer, where his friend's wedding would take place.

Leg 1, Delhi to Bharatpur (bus, taxi or train, all three taking 12 hours): the probability of reaching on time is 0.65 by bus, 0.75 by taxi and 0.9 by train.
Leg 2, Bharatpur to Jodhpur (train, bus or private taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.9 by train (12 hours), 0.8 by bus (16 hours) and 0.85 by taxi (14 hours).
Leg 3, Jodhpur to Jaipur (flight, train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.85 by flight (2 hours), 0.9 by train (10 hours), 0.65 by bus (15 hours) and 0.7 by taxi (15 hours).
Leg 4, Jaipur to Ajmer (train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.75 by train (4 hours), 0.55 by bus (5 hours) and 0.55 by taxi (5 hours).

Since both Jaipur and Jodhpur have airports, Ram could also fly directly from Delhi to either city, or use a flight partway along with a combination of land transport.
Ram's statistically minded friend Rocky feels that Ram should not use just one criterion to decide on a plan. "Decision making has to bring in all the criteria together. That is what makes a decision sound," Rocky said.

"How do I do that?" Ram asked. "Simple," said Rocky. "Give a weight to each criterion, multiply the value of each criterion by its weight, and add up the products for each option."

Rocky explained with an example: "For each option there are two criteria, the probability of not making it to the wedding and the travel time. The probability of not reaching on time is 1 minus the probability of reaching on time. Say you hate the thought of missing the wedding after all this effort, so give that criterion a weight of 80%. You also want to keep the travel time low, so give that a weight of 20%. For each option, add up (value of each criterion times its weight) and compare the totals across options. Pick the option with the lowest total."

"That simple?" Ram asked. "Well, it is, for a start," Rocky admitted.
Q128. As the foggy winter conditions continue, flights out of Delhi remain uncertain and unreliable. Using Rocky's elementary decision-making framework, which of the following itineraries should Ram adopt?
Directions for Q125-129: The following set of questions is based on a decision-making situation described below. Read the passage and answer the questions that follow.

Ram Kumar, an overworked executive in Delhi, has to decide on the travel plan for attending his friend's marriage in Ajmer, Rajasthan. He has barely managed to get leave from his boss, so he must make sure he reaches Ajmer at least on the day of the marriage. Since it had been a while since his last break, he also planned to visit a few tourist spots along the way to de-stress after a year of demanding work.

As per his plan, Ram would start from Delhi and first visit the Bharatpur bird sanctuary, staying at the forest guest house for some time. He would then travel to Jodhpur for a day or two of sightseeing, and from Jodhpur move to Jaipur to spend a few days visiting the city. After that he would travel on to Ajmer, where his friend's wedding would take place.

Leg 1, Delhi to Bharatpur (bus, taxi or train, all three taking 12 hours): the probability of reaching on time is 0.65 by bus, 0.75 by taxi and 0.9 by train.
Leg 2, Bharatpur to Jodhpur (train, bus or private taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.9 by train (12 hours), 0.8 by bus (16 hours) and 0.85 by taxi (14 hours).
Leg 3, Jodhpur to Jaipur (flight, train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.85 by flight (2 hours), 0.9 by train (10 hours), 0.65 by bus (15 hours) and 0.7 by taxi (15 hours).
Leg 4, Jaipur to Ajmer (train, bus or taxi): the probability of reaching on time is 0.75 by train (4 hours), 0.55 by bus (5 hours) and 0.55 by taxi (5 hours).

Since both Jaipur and Jodhpur have airports, Ram could also fly directly from Delhi to either city, or use a flight partway along with a combination of land transport.
Ram's statistically minded friend Rocky feels that Ram should not use just one criterion to decide on a plan. "Decision making has to bring in all the criteria together. That is what makes a decision sound," Rocky said.

"How do I do that?" Ram asked. "Simple," said Rocky. "Give a weight to each criterion, multiply the value of each criterion by its weight, and add up the products for each option."

Rocky explained with an example: "For each option there are two criteria, the probability of not making it to the wedding and the travel time. The probability of not reaching on time is 1 minus the probability of reaching on time. Say you hate the thought of missing the wedding after all this effort, so give that criterion a weight of 80%. You also want to keep the travel time low, so give that a weight of 20%. For each option, add up (value of each criterion times its weight) and compare the totals across options. Pick the option with the lowest total."

"That simple?" Ram asked. "Well, it is, for a start," Rocky admitted.
For reference, the five itineraries under discussion (labelled A to E on the x-axis of each bar chart) are:
A: Delhi to Bharatpur by train; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by taxi; Jodhpur to Jaipur by bus; Jaipur to Ajmer by train
B: Delhi to Bharatpur by taxi; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by train; Jodhpur to Jaipur by flight; Jaipur to Ajmer by train
C: Delhi to Bharatpur by train; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by train; Jodhpur to Jaipur by train; Jaipur to Ajmer by train
D: Delhi to Bharatpur by train; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by taxi; Jodhpur to Jaipur by train; Jaipur to Ajmer by train
E: Delhi to Bharatpur by train; Bharatpur to Jodhpur by bus; Jodhpur to Jaipur by flight; Jaipur to Ajmer by train
Q129. Of the diagrams given as options, which one best represents the contribution of each of the two criteria to the overall score, for each of the five itineraries A to E listed above, where the bottom portion of each bar shows the contribution of the probability of NOT reaching the destination on time, and the top portion shows the contribution of travel time?
(Questions 115 to 117): The year 2004 was a great year for Top-Cloth cotton mill. Manufacturing towels for the export market and employing more than 2000 workers, the company had an impressive growth in sales and profits. The Chairman felt that employees were entitled to a share in the profits, and it was proposed that the employee mess be air-conditioned. The proposal was discussed in a meeting attended by, among other senior officials, the marketing director, the personnel director and the finance director. The proposal was based on the fact that the shop floor of the mill often had temperatures in excess of 40 degrees C with a relative humidity of 99%. The air-conditioned mess would represent management's appreciation of the employees' hard work.

At the end of 2005, management reviewed the mill's performance. Profits were higher, and employee attrition was negligible. The Chairman decided that employees deserved additional recognition for their fine work. Since the mess had already been air-conditioned, the Chairman wanted to know if the employees appreciated this sort of action. In the course of discussion, the Chairman asked the personnel director to send a questionnaire to a sample of fifty employees and obtain their reaction to the air-conditioned mess. The management agreed to decide only after obtaining the feedback from the employees.

The personnel director mailed a simple form to fifty employees, asking them for the following information: "Please state your reaction to the air-conditioned mess." Of the fifty forms mailed, forty-six were returned. The answers received were as follows:
ReactionFrequency
"I did not know it was air-conditioned."16
"I never eat there"8
"If management can spend money like that, they should pay us more"6
"I wish the entire mill was air-conditioned."8
"The mess is for management employees."4
"It is OK."2
Miscellaneous comments2

116. Management of Top-Cloth cotton mill considers itself to be socially conscious, and its decisions are often re-examined for their social relevance and their impact on society. In view of this consideration, what could have been considered before deciding on profit sharing?
A. communicating management's intentions via employee newsletters
B. taking employees' inputs in designing the cafeteria's interiors and installation of air-conditioning
C. considering employees' views on different ways of sharing excess profits
D. investing in capacity expansion to take care of the booming export market
E. dividing the profits equally among the workers and shareholders
The options in decreasing order of their impact on society: