Question

All the parliamentarians whom the reporter interviewed told that they had voted as per their conscience. Therefore, probably all the parliamentarians voted as per their conscience. This argument is an example of:

• A. Inductive generalization
• B. Predictive argument
• C. Generalization based on authority
• D. Deduction generalization

Hint:

Notice the move from "the ones interviewed" (a sample) to "probably all" (the whole group), and the hedging word "probably" itself.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is A

Only the parliamentarians the reporter actually interviewed are the source of the claim, yet the conclusion reaches out to all parliamentarians, with the hedge word "probably" attached.

1. Inductive generalization: this is exactly a move from an observed sample to a probable claim about the wider group it was drawn from, which is what happens here: interviewed parliamentarians to all parliamentarians, with "probably" signalling the uncertainty that comes with generalizing from a sample.
2. Predictive argument: this would forecast something not yet known to have happened. The voting has already taken place, so there is nothing being predicted, only generalized.
3. Generalization based on authority: this would need an expert or trusted source being cited as proof. The parliamentarians are the people the claim is about, not authorities vouching for someone else's claim, so this label is wrong.
4. Deduction generalization: a real deduction needs a premise that already covers the entire group and delivers a certain conclusion. Here the premise covers only a sample, and the conclusion is hedged with "probably", the opposite of a deduction's certainty.

The sample-to-whole-group move with a probability hedge is the signature of inductive generalization, so that is the answer.

Let's summarize:

• Generalizing from an observed sample to the whole group, with a hedge like "probably", is inductive reasoning.
• A true deduction needs full coverage in its premise and gives a certain, not probable, conclusion.

So the correct choice is "inductive generalization".