Question:medium

Let the mean and variance of 7 observations 2, 4, 10, x, 12, 14, y, where x>y, be 8 and 16 respectively. Two numbers are chosen from \(\{1, 2, 3, x-4, y, 5\}\) one after another without replacement, then the probability, that the smaller number among the two chosen numbers is less than 4, is:

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For probability problems involving "at least", "at most", or complex conditions, always consider calculating the probability of the complementary event. It's often much simpler and less prone to counting errors. Subtracting this from 1 gives the desired probability.
Updated On: Mar 5, 2026
  • \(\frac{4}{5}\)
  • \(\frac{3}{5}\)
  • \(\frac{2}{5}\)
  • \(\frac{1}{3}\)
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The Correct Option is A

Solution and Explanation

To solve this problem, we need to follow these steps: 

  1. Find the values of \( x \) and \( y \) using the given mean and variance of the observations.
  2. Determine the probability that the smaller number among the chosen two numbers is less than 4.

Step 1: Calculate values of \( x \) and \( y \)

The mean of 7 observations is given as 8.

$$\frac{2 + 4 + 10 + x + 12 + 14 + y}{7} = 8$$

Solving this equation:

$$42 + x + y = 56$$

This simplifies to:

$$x + y = 14 \quad \text{(Equation 1)}$$

The variance is given as 16. The formula for variance is:

$$\frac{(2^2 + 4^2 + 10^2 + x^2 + 12^2 + 14^2 + y^2)}{7} - 8^2 = 16$$

Expanding and simplifying:

$$\frac{4 + 16 + 100 + x^2 + 144 + 196 + y^2}{7} - 64 = 16$$

Simplifying further:

$$\frac{460 + x^2 + y^2}{7} - 64 = 16$$

$$460 + x^2 + y^2 = 560$$

Thus,

$$x^2 + y^2 = 100 \quad \text{(Equation 2)}$$

Using equations 1 & 2, we solve for \( x \) and \( y \) using:

$$(x + y)^2 = x^2 + y^2 + 2xy $$

$$14^2 = 100 + 2xy$$

$$196 = 100 + 2xy$$

$$2xy = 96 \Rightarrow xy = 48$$

Simplifying \( x \) and \( y \) with Quadratic:

$$t^2 - 14t + 48 = 0$$

Finding roots:

$$t = \frac{14 \pm \sqrt{196 - 192}}{2} = \frac{14 \pm 2}{2}$$

This results in \( t = 8 \) or \( t = 6 \). Since \( x > y \), \( x = 8 \) and \( y = 6 \).

Step 2: Calculate the probability

The set of numbers is \(\{1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 5\}\). We are choosing two numbers without replacement. The total number of ways to choose 2 numbers is:

$$\binom{6}{2} = 15$$

Favorable outcome: The smaller number among the two is less than 4. Consider the favorable pairs:

  • (1, 2)
  • (1, 3)
  • (1, 4)
  • (1, 5)
  • (1, 6)
  • (2, 3)
  • (2, 4)
  • (2, 5)
  • (2, 6)
  • (3, 4)
  • (3, 5)
  • (3, 6)

Total favorable outcomes = 12.

Therefore, the probability is:

$$\frac{12}{15} = \frac{4}{5}$$

Thus, the correct answer is \( \frac{4}{5} \).

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