Read the following passage and answer the question given below:
Demographic transition theory can be used to describe and predict the future population of any area. The theory tells us that the population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses from rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society. These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle. In the first stage, there are high fertility and high mortality because people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. The population growth is slow and most of the people are engaged in agriculture where large families are an asset. Life expectancy is low, people are mostly illiterate and have low levels of technology. Two hundred years ago all the countries of the world were in this stage. Fertility remains high in the beginning of the second stage but it declines with time. This is accompanied by a reduced mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and health
conditions lead to a decline in mortality. Because of this gap, the net addition to the population is high. In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably. The population is either stable or grows slowly. The population becomes urbanised, literate and has high technical know-how and deliberately controls family size. This shows that human beings are extremely flexible and are able to adjust their fertility. In the present day, different countries are at different stages of demographic transition.
The demographic transition model illustrates population changes across developmental stages. It comprises four stages:
These stages collectively define the demographic cycle.
Analyzing each option against the demographic transition theory, as described in the passage, identifies the incorrect statement:
It can describe and predict the future population of any area.
This statement accurately reflects the theory's predictive capacity, as it outlines how population dynamics shift with development from high birth and death rates to lower ones.
Fertility remains high in the beginning of the second stage.
This statement is also correct. The passage indicates that fertility is elevated at the outset of the second stage before declining as mortality rates fall.
The first stage has high fertility and high mortality.
This statement accurately describes the first stage of the theory, characterized by both elevated fertility and mortality rates.
Life expectancy is very high in the first stage.
The passage explicitly states that life expectancy is low during the first stage due to prevalent epidemics and food scarcity. Consequently, this statement is incorrect.
Therefore, the statement that is NOT correct concerning the demographic transition theory is: Life expectancy is very high in the first stage.
The demographic transition theory describes shifts in population growth and composition through distinct phases. Stage two is identified by:
Decreasing Fertility Over Time: While fertility begins at a high level, it subsequently decreases. This reduction is a response to the population's adaptation to improved living standards, including enhanced sanitation and healthcare, which contribute to lower mortality rates. During this phase, the population grows because a disparity persists between the falling death rates and birth rates that remain elevated.
Consequently, the accurate selection reflecting the defined attributes of the second stage of demographic transition is Fertility declines with time.
The correct statement is derived from the demographic transition theory, which describes a country's population evolution from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as societies develop.
Analysis of the options:
The passage highlights that:
Therefore, the accurate statement is Option 4: Currently, various countries are in distinct phases of demographic transition.
The demographic transition theory outlines societal progression through distinct population growth and structure stages. The final stage of this transition is defined by the following characteristics:
The assertion "Low level of urbanisation" is inaccurate for the concluding stage of demographic transition, which is instead characterized by high urbanization. Consequently, the attribute NOT linked to the final stage of demographic transition is a Low level of urbanisation.
| List-I (Concept) | List-II (Definition) |
|---|---|
| (A) Age structure | (I) Larger proportion of workers relative to non-workers |
| (B) Demographic dividend | (II) Persons in different age groups relative to the total population |
| (C) Population momentum | (III) Where a large cohort of women of reproductive age will fuel population growth over the next generation, even if each woman has fewer children than previous generations did |
| (D) Dependency ratio | (IV) Measure of comparing the proportion of non-working age group to working age group |