Question

Five jumbled up sentences (labelled 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5), related to a topic, are given below. Four of them can be put together to form a coherent paragraph. Identify the odd sentence and key in the number of that sentence as your answer.

• A. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
• B. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
• C. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
• D. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
• E. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

Answer 1

The Correct Option is B

The goal is to find the sentence that doesn't fit logically within a paragraph formed by the other sentences. We'll check for consistent themes and logical progression.

1. Part of the appeal of forecasting is not just that it seems to work, but that you don't seem to need specialized expertise to succeed at it.
2. The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.
3. This was true even though the latter had access to classified intelligence.
4. One frequently cited study found that accurate forecasters' predictions of geopolitical events, when aggregated using standard scientific methods, were more accurate than the forecasts of members of the US intelligence community who answered the same questions in a confidential prediction market.
5. The aggregated opinions of non-experts doing forecasting have proven to be a better guide to the future than the aggregated opinions of experts.

The main subject is forecasting, specifically its accuracy and how non-experts can sometimes be more accurate than experts, particularly in intelligence-related predictions.

Analysis:

1 - Discusses forecasting's appeal and that expertise isn't always needed.

3 - Supports the idea by stating this was true even when intelligence experts had classified information.

4 - Provides a study comparing non-experts and experts in forecasting accuracy, which is directly relevant.

5 - Reinforces the idea that non-experts can be better forecasters than experts, aligning with the main theme.

2 - Explains the link between forecasting and interest from the intelligence community. While related, it doesn't directly support the theme of non-experts outperforming experts.

Therefore, sentence 2 is the odd one out because it shifts the primary focus. The answer is:

The tight connection between forecasting and building a model of the world helps explain why so much of the early interest in the idea came from the intelligence community.