Ask what is actually burning the calories at rest. The bulk of resting energy expenditure comes from organs and muscle that are metabolically busy all the time, and together these form the fat-free or lean body mass. Adipose tissue, by contrast, sits there using almost no energy, so a heavier person is not automatically a higher burner if the extra weight is fat. That is why two people of identical weight differ in resting expenditure when one is muscular and the other is obese, and it is why lean body mass tracks $BMR$ better than total weight, body mass index or degree of obesity. Body surface area is only a reporting convention used to express the value in standard units, not the tissue performing the metabolism. The closest true determinant is lean body mass.
\[\boxed{\text{Lean body mass}}\]